Richard Paulsen
Oljeprisen har steget 11 dollar på to uker, etter en bunn rett før nyttårsaften. Det er i følge Goldman Sachs ett av de lengste ubrutte rallyene oljeprisen har opplevd. Det satt i hvert fall en midlertidig bunn i oljeaksjene. Jeg er mer tvilende på om dette holder, fordi vi ser en kamp utspille seg mellom Saudi/OPEC og amerikanske interesser (den kampen har vel vart i cirka 50 år allerede), der utfallet ikke er gitt. Trump er en fighter, og har vist at han er villig til å strekke seg lengre enn andre på enkelte saker som står hans hjerte nær. Lav oljepris er en av dem.
På Oslo Børs har høybeta aksjene åpenbart steget mest, men ser man på prisutviklingen i Equinor synes jeg ikke gamle statoil har kommet sterkt tilbake i det hele tatt. PGS har steget fra 10.66 kroner til 17.70 kroner. AkerBP har steget 20% fra 212 til 255 kroner. Equinor er opp 6 kroner , noe som tilsvarer 3.7% oppgang fra bunnotering i romjulen. Det er kanarifuglen i gruven, ikke en spekulativ seismikk-aksje.
Joshua Brown sier det godt i videoen under, at aksjer og indekser må ta ut tidligere toppnoteringer før man kan erklære bunnen for satt. Inntil da vil faren hele tiden være der at vi har satt en lavere topp eller at vi utfordrer bunnoteringene fra julen. Helt nederst har jeg limt inn et kåseri han publiserte på Facebook om hvordan gjøre gode “dealer”. Ikke vanskelig å gjette hvem som inspirerte han til å skrive den teksten.
Fifteen steps to deal-making glory…
1. Put all your cards on the table, let everyone involved know exactly what you want. Tweet it out if necessary. Repeat it over and over again so that your counterparties have no doubt as to your desires and needs.
2. Take into account as much feedback from outside parties as possible. Even if it means changing your rhetoric mid sentence.
3. Self-contradiction is your friend. It keeps everyone off balance, even yourself. Saying three different things every day is sure to speed the negotiation process up.
4. Always issue ultimatums and deadlines. Even if you can’t enforce them. It’s great fodder for the media, and attention from the media is the only thing that counts in life.
5. Back yourself into a corner. Give yourself as few outs and potential exits as possible. The earlier you can do this, the better.
6. Surround yourself with controversial, barely qualified imbeciles. Have them contradict each other in public remarks. Play the members of your side of the table against each other. Keeps the other side guessing.
7. Make promises you can’t keep, as loudly and as often as you can. Yell them into a microphone at college football stadiums. Print them on a hat.
8. Always be fighting wars on as many fronts as possible. If you run out of adversaries, go after your allies. The important thing is to be engaged in multiple battles day and night, conflict without end, strife as far as the eye can see.
9. Never back down, never give an inch, never apologize, never see things from anyone else’s perspective.
10. Lie incessantly. Tell so many lies that anyone paying attention begins to doubt their own sanity. Put the whole concept of truth itself on trial.
11. Declare victory before you even begin.
12. Accuse everyone of cheating. Call the negotiation process itself “rigged” and unfair early on, so that no outcome can possibly be blamed on you.
13. Make sure you have nothing at stake personally, that way there’s room for plenty of other people under the bus.
14. Be as emotional as possible, especially when the cameras are on.
15. Win!
